Let’s do a quick dive into the Warriors since the NBA trade deadline is looming large as their last chance to not spend another one of Stephen Curry’s twilight years in the Play-In tournament (or, gulp, worse). At this point it’s clear that this Warriors iteration is flawed and while the undefeated preseason and hot start to the regular season raised hopes, the league caught on, injuries hit, and the team has come crashing down to earth, particularly on the offensive end. However, as it seems the team understands, that’s no reason to chase some less than optimal past decisions with bad ones today.
We don’t need to rehash the Wiseman decision here, as that one stands out as truly poor and the organization has more or less admitted as much.
Let’s start with some perspective. I think many people, including the Warriors’ front office, would today admit that the 2021 and 2022 drafts could have gone better. Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, and Gui Santos have all contributed a decent amount when considering their draft position, and certainly more than others. Of course it would be amazing if in 2021 they had drafted one or even two of Franz Wagner (1 spot after Kuminga), Alperen Şengün (2 spots after Moody), Trey Murphy III (3 spots after Moody), or Jalen Johnson (6 spots after Moody). You can continue even deeper into the draft with Cam Thomas, Santi Aldama, Herb Jones, and Ayo Dosunmu all being solid or better rotation players so far in the NBA.
(It’s wild to me that Moody’s career highs in minutes, points, and field goal attempts all happened in his rookie season. I wish they had given him more G League minutes where he could have developed his floor game more instead of playing a more rigid role with the big league team. I think more in-game reps reading the defense and making individual moves would have been a boon to his development.)
But it’s also important to remember neither Kuminga nor Moody have been outright busts. Besides Wagner, none of the players picked between Kuminga and Moody have signed a second contract and several could be out of the NBA soon. Tre Mann and Kai Jones have largely been non-contributors, and while I don’t know for sure, I think NBA evaluators would largely be split on whether or not they’d take Josh Giddey or Jonathan Kuminga going forward.
The 2022 draft is, frankly, worse. Pat Baldwin Jr. and Ryan Rollins were salary dumped on the Wizards to help match for the CP3 trade. PBJ subsequently had his fourth year option turned down. Rollins was cut by the Wizards as well as accused of shoplifting small items from a Target while with the team, though he’s had a decent season so far with Milwaukee as a defensive specialist. Peyton Watson, Andrew Nembhard, Jaylin Williams, Max Christie, and Jaden Hardy stand out as players picked within 7 spots of PBJ that have seen more success so far in the NBA. Nembhard and Williams are the two that hurt the most, in my opinion. Gui Santos can be considered a success for being the 55th overall pick and has had flashes of contributing, but not much more.
Unfortunately, contending in the NBA requires succeeding on several bets through either placing a lot of them or hitting on the limited supply you can. Besides Jordan Poole, the Warriors got next to nothing from their 2018, 2019, and 2020 drafts, but even then you see the danger of success with the price of rookie extensions and rising expectations for young players trying to make their mark in the league.
Those mistakes haunt the 2024-25 Warriors more than picking Kuminga or Moody, despite how easy it is to blame the front office, coaches, or even the players themselves. Now that we’ve accepted the context, what can they do with the situation they’re in now?
They currently sit 11th in the Western Conference, tied with the Phoenix Suns at 20-20, but 9th in net rating. According to Positive Residual’s NBA calendar summary, they have have a below average strength of schedule for their remaining opponents and it’s the fourth easiest out of the Western Conference teams behind Denver, OKC, and Utah (a possible threat to their Sag for Flagg chances??). Furthermore, an even 21 of the remaining 42 games are at home, including 8 of their next 9, and they have 6 games each that qualify for rest+ and rest-. They can only blame bad luck to an extent with their wins - xWins differential coming in smaller than Memphis, Dallas, Sacramento, and Minnesota (the Lakers have “overachieved” by nearly five wins and the Suns by 1.6).
The reasons for hope are mostly due to besides a serious injury to Curry (knocks on wood), the Warriors seem like they can only go up. Gary Payton II has returned and is back to working his on / off magic, providing another ace perimeter defender besides Wiggins. Kuminga will be back at some point. Schroder will either improve as he gains comfort with his new teammates and system, get traded at the deadline, or get pushed to a lesser role. Buddy Hield won’t shoot 32.6% from 3 as he did from game 16 (start of the bad Warriors) through game 39 (the Raptors game). Maybe Gui Santos is good enough to contribute regularly.
And perhaps they follow through on the well-covered desire to find a stretch big option to play alongside Draymond, though I wonder if that ultimately means simply giving Quinten Post a chance. It’s hard not to wonder about what impact Jay Huff could be having with this team, and as a sidenote I am intrigued by how they use their open two-way contract slot.
The best options for stretch bigs appear to be John Collins and Nikola Vucevic and hopefully they mesh quicker than Schroder. A trade is unfortunately complicated by the fact that the Warriors are right up against the first apron and hard capped at it, meaning they basically need to have less salary incoming than outgoing. The salary matching is easier for Vucevic as they could deal Schroder and any one of Kyle Anderson, Gary Payton II, Buddy Hield, or Kevon Looney, though Anderson and Hield’s extra years may force the Warriors to pay more. If they send out more players than they receive, then they will also need to send out enough outgoing salary to account for how much they’ll spend filling that extra spot to stay in compliance with the CBA.
Another complicating factor is that the Warriors only have two second round picks available to trade - the 2025 one they got back from the Nets in the Schroder deal and their own 2030 (they might be able to deal a 2032 one now, I’m not sure). This gives them less ballast to even out a deal and could force them to give up a first round pick while getting one or two second rounders back, or something along those lines. Overall they’ve got enough picks to trade for an elite player while having a hard time matching the salary, and the salary to match more mid-tier players but not necessarily the right other assets (lesser picks, overseas rights).
I would also encourage Warriors fans to look at who is available in the salary ranges where their main player combinations land (~$35-$39M and ~$15-22M) and ask if those players really seem like difference makers. The only players that really stand out are guys that don’t seem like logical trade candidates. Two players who pique my interest more from a “what happens with you??” standpoint than as trade candidates for the Warriors are Ben Simmons and Lonzo Ball, both high IQ guys whose production has been sapped by injuries.
All of this is to say that while the season has been disappointing so far for the Warriors, there are reasons for optimism in the second half of the season, especially if they win seven or eight out of the ten games prior to the deadline on February 6th at noon Pacific. Turning it around may be about getting back to the basics rather than any big, splashy moves. Those seem more likely until the offseason, when Looney and Payton come off the books, Moody’s salary jumps up and is eligible to be traded, and Anderson and Hield become pseudo-expiring deals. They might be able to duck back under the salary cap to use the non-taxpayer MLE before proceeding with other moves like using Early Bird Rights to re-sign Lindy Waters, extend Kuminga, or make some trades.
In the meantime, the Warriors simply have to execute better and close out some of the winnable games that have slipped away so that Curry and Green’s twilight years don’t follow suit.
Comments