The Golden State Warriors did not make the playoffs for the first time when all three of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green were available. It’s an odd feeling, knowing that the NBA Playoffs continue on without these three. Four if count Steve Kerr, who has been right there with them since the 2014-15 season. And considering how they lost several games when they had big leads, it’s easy to envision them either making the Playoffs outright or at least enjoying a higher seed for the Play-In games.
But let’s look forward and not rehash the missed chances. The organization faces a big summer with several key decision points, though the team’s lack of success has surely made at least a handful of those easier than before. John Hollinger had an excellent summary of the team’s position for The Athletic, but I would like to go deeper here.
Overview
The Warriors didn’t have a bad season by any stretch - a 46-36 record with a +2.4 Net Rating and +2.77 SRS is typically strong enough for a playoff spot. But the Western Conference remains strong and includes many teams with legitimate playoff aspirations. The combination of an aging core and down seasons from Andrew Wiggins, Kevon Looney, and Gary Payton II made it difficult to reach the regular season heights necessary to see what this group could muster in the playoffs. The result of this is a need to look in the mirror and figure out what they want to do moving forward in the face of historically high payrolls and luxury tax payments with the looming extension for Jonathan Kuminga and increased team-building penalties. All of the penalties for being over the second apron will soon go into effect, making it harder to simply spend your way to a good team. Curry remains committed to winning and the team can certainly stay above water enough to stay respectable, even if contending is likely out the window.
They must decide between trying to cut costs and maintaining organizational knowledge that has been built up between tenured players. I’m sure much of the organization would also love to bring Chris Paul back thanks to his on court performance, leadership with the younger players, and the impact he had on the second unit, but waiving him is also the quickest way to decrease costs. Unfortunately it’s a near certainty the Warriors get less production from the backup point guard spot next year, and balancing their depth along with changing roles and their financial situation will be a theme this summer.
So how will they accomplish these goals? How will they thread the needle between financial responsibility and responsibility to their best player ever? In my opinion there are several key decisions they’ll have to make, both about individual players and groups of players, that are ripe for exploration.
Decision Points
Kevon Looney
Looney is the first, and possibly most painful, decision of the summer for the Warriors. His contract would have become guaranteed for the full $8 million if the Warriors had won the championship this year or last, but instead is only guaranteed for $3 million. It becomes fully guaranteed if he’s still on the roster past 6/24, which is seven days before the NBA’s summer moratorium begins on 7/1.
As much as I love Looney, he was supplanted by Trayce Jackson-Davis in the Warriors’ starting lineup by the end of the year and despite TJD’s own deer-in-the-headlights moment in the play-in loss to the Kings, Looney only logged 8:32 of action in that game. It seems the organization is pencilling TJD in as the starter for next season, which makes sense considering he was better and cheaper than Looney. It’s tough for any team, let alone on in this financial situation, to justify paying $8 million for your backup center. Lineups with TJD, Green, and Curry and only one of Kuminga and Wiggins - aka proxies for next year’s presumed starting lineup - were +38 in 111 minutes (+33 in ~116 including the play-in game).
Cutting $5 million off their salary table also saves more in tax payments due to the NBA’s escalating tax rates and Golden State’s status as a repeat offender making their rates even higher. Reallocating the backup center position to a minimum salary player - maybe even Looney! - is much more palatable for this team. If the Warriors do hold onto him past his guarantee deadline, I would expect them to try and combine his salary with others to get a bigger target.
Chris Paul
edit: Paul’s entire section is more or less wrong since I got the details incorrect for how trades work with salaries that are non-guaranteed for the following season. Paul’s salary would need to be guaranteed for at least the minimum amount to make the trade legal, which since the Warriors are a second-apron team and can’t take money back in a trade, would be at least as much salary as they’re receiving. This significantly narrows the realistic possibilities for a trade, particularly if Paul is the only piece being sent out.
The Point God is due $30.8 million next season, but it only becomes guaranteed if he’s on the roster past 6/28, giving the Warriors some extra time to find a possible trade for him. There are possible matches out there, particularly for teams who want to cut short-term money off their own tax bill or move several lower salaries that stay on the balance sheet for longer. Crucially, Paul’s guarantee date is after the NBA draft, opening up their 2025 draft pick to be included in a trade. Paul’s contract is also the Warriors’ best chance at matching a max salary if that opportunity presents itself, though there aren’t many max players that seem potentially available and ideal fits for the Warriors. Of course, if Paul and the Warriors mutually agree to push back the guarantee date past 7/1, that could open up more options, though the Warriors likely would not be able to aggregate salaries due to being past the second apron.
Some quick hits on trade frameworks that I came up with thanks to the NBA Trade Constructor (read about it here), my new NBA trade tool. These are not meant to be complete trades, so potential draft compensation to even up the deals was not considered.
- Chris Paul for Bruce Brown and Chris Boucher: The Raptors would likely ask for some additional compensation here for Brown, though Boucher’s contract is negative as a part-time player with a $10 million salary for the 2024-25 year. Brown could essentially fill the GP2 role for the Warriors (we’ll get to Payton).
- Paul for Norman Powell and PJ Tucker: Tucker is an even more negative contract than Boucher, which combined with the Clippers’ own tax situation, could make this appealing to them. Powell could fill the same role with the Warriors as he does with the Clippers.
- Paul for John Collins and Omer Yurtseven: This one feels like a stretch, but perhaps the Jazz would be interested in CP as a tutor for Keyonte George.
- Paul for Jerami Grant: Grant consistently comes up as a target for Warriors’ fans, but I’m not as convinced. He’s maybe even more allergic to rebounding than Wiggins and plays catch-and-hold basketball more than the Warriors. Other barriers are the Blazers’ seeming lack of interest in moving him and that acquiring Grant would also necessitate moving Wiggins, which won’t be easy.
- Paul and Moses Moody for Karl-Anthony Towns and one of Leonard Miller and Josh Minott: This one entirely depends on how the Wolves perform in the playoffs and their owners’ - whether that’s Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez or Glen Taylor - appetite for paying the tax next year.
- Paul and Moody for Jonathan Isaac and Joe Ingles: Ingles is at best a neutral contract and Isaac would provide another element on defense for the Warriors. Moody is a shooting bet for the Magic and perhaps the space opened by cutting Paul could help them land someone else to add to their young core. Wendell Carter could potentially be substituted in for Isaac and he’d be a good fit in Golden State.
- Paul and Moody for Malcolm Brogdon and one of Robert Williams and Matisse Thybulle: Williams is great - when healthy. Brogdon would provide another ball handler for the Warriors. Paul could tutor Scoot or be cut for more cap space while Moody could battle for the backup SG spot behind Shaedon Sharpe. If the deal is for Brogdon and Williams, then the Blazers would likely want more compensation whereas Thybulle’s inclusion might sway it the Warriors’ asking for more in return.
- Paul and Moody for Keldon Johnson and one of Devonte Graham and Zach Collins: Similarly to the previous deal, which of the “other” players impacts if additional compensation is required since Collins is a capable enough big while Graham is unlikely to play much. Johnson is an appealing bet for the Warriors as a more experienced young player who isn’t on too bad of a contract and could look better on a better team. The Spurs may be reluctant to do this since they might just wait for the Warriors to cut Paul and then sign him.
- Paul and Moody for Kuzma and one of Marvin Bagley, Richaun Holmes, and Johnny Davis: The Wizards would likely ask for more draft compensation to give up Kuzma and it feels unlikely that Kuzma really fits with the Warriors. He’s a forward and not a wing, and would require the starting power forward spot, which moves Green to the starting center spot. In my opinion, that’s something the Warriors want to avoid as Green ages.
- Paul, Moody, and Looney for Zach LaVine: This could happen and would likely spell the end of Klay Thompson’s time as a Warrior. I’m skeptical mainly because while the backcourt could be amazing offensively, any success with a LaVine / Curry pairing would seem to require a defensive jump from LaVine.
Or they simply cut him. It’s the simplest way of massively reducing their overall salary and, if combined with other moves, could get them below not just the second apron but the first. If they get to that point, then they’ll have the bi-annual and taxpayer midlevel exceptions open to them - though they can only use one - and can aggregate salaries in trades. Opening up these team-building avenues and reducing the overall bill for the team make this feel quite likely.
Gary Payton II
GP2 is similar to Looney, though he possesses more control over his future since his contract contains a player option for next season. Losing him, Looney, and potentially Klay Thompson would mean the team is losing a lot of organizational knowledge and give Curry and Green in particular fewer outlets on the team. It’s clear Steph, the organization, and the fans love GP2 and he brings a lot of joy to the court when he plays. But staying on the court is the problem as he hasn’t been able to stay healthy for much of the past two years.
He expressed interest in essentially declining his player option in order to re-sign at a lower number for more years if that helps keep him in Golden State, and that arrangement could work well for both sides. If the organization indicates that won’t happen, I expect him to exercise that player option and potentially get traded for a bigger fish, similarly to what could happen with Looney.
The Wings
Klay Thompson. Andrew Wiggins. Jonathan Kuminga. Moses Moody.
I would bet at least one of those players is no longer on Golden State when next season rolls around. Payton could also be lumped in here. Thompson is of course a free agent and seems likely to demand at least $20 million per year on the open market, but so far reports are that he’s leaning towards returning to the Warriors. I think a deal in the low to mid $20s annually for three years seems likely, so that his contract lines up with Curry, Green, and Kerr. If possible, the Warriors should give it a flat or declining salary structure over the years to lessen the hits as Thompson ages.
Only one of Wiggins and Kuminga seems likely to be on the team next season. Whether it is Lacob or Dunleavy driving the thought process, it sure seems like the organization would like Kuminga to really take control of the starting small forward spot. So far he’s operated mainly as a nominal power forward, playing alongside a single big with the floor spaced around him so he can attack off the bounce in big driving lanes, but for him to take the next step, he needs improved shooting and decision making in a more crowded court.
The Kuminga / Wiggins debate is another focal point of the offseason, though the pairing succeeded for a stretch while Green started at center. Getting them on the court together is only possible with single big lineups and those lineups - both Kuminga and Wiggins with one of Green, TJD, Saric, and Looney - had a net rating of -0.95 in nearly 1400 possessions last season, scoring a lot but also bleeding points. It’s unclear how sustainable it is, but Kuminga’s looming extension means it will get solved by next offseason at the latest.
(Green aging but still locking in the 4 spot has inadvertently created a roster building challenge that’s unlike many others in the NBA as the more traditional power forward becomes rarer. The Warriors need centers to take the regular season beating so Green at the 5 can be unleashed when necessary, but Green at the 4 prevents Kuminga at least from being fully actualized on the offensive end. Although this was long a feature for the Warriors, it’s shifting more towards a bug as Green ages.)
Of course, part of the discussion is Wiggins’ own decline from the championship year. Although he posted near career highs in some rebounding numbers and his free throw percentage returned to near peak levels as well, he clearly wasn’t as effective. He was negative in points added on field goal attempts for the first time in a full season with the Warriors. The rebounding gains were mostly on the offensive end. Most importantly, he wasn’t the defensive player the Warriors needed him to be, by the eye test or the stats with drops in block and steal rates and overall effectiveness per defensive box plus-minus and DARKO plus-minus. It’s crucial for the Warriors to have an effective point of attack defender to protect both Curry and Thompson from tough defensive assignments.
He bounced back, or at least leveled off in his decline, towards the end of the year. But the damage has been done to his reputation league-wide and 23 solid games won’t fully counteract nearly a year and a half of poor performance. The Warriors will likely have to include at least one draft pick to get off of the remaining three years and $85 million on his deal and it’s harder to pick out who exactly would want / need Wiggins. The Raptors have RJ Barrett, who is more of a 3 than a 2. The Grizzlies could be an option, but it depends on what roles they envision for GG Jackson and Vince Williams next year. Philly could be interested if they strike out on other options, but will basically only have draft compensation to send back. The Pacers could see him as an upgrade over Aaron Nesmith, though that feels unlikely and it would almost have to be Wiggins for Nesmith and TJ McConnell. That deal doesn’t pass the sniff test to me.
Lastly we have Moses Moody, who seems likely to be dealt unless Klay signs elsewhere. I heard he was being offered in trade packages at the deadline and despite establishing career highs in games played and minutes per game, it feels like he’s the odd man out. There is value in keeping him around as Klay’s minutes continue to tick down since he’s a solid, if flawed, wing defender and solid shooter who could take a step forward given more freedom to explore on offense. Personally I would keep him around and make him the backup shooting guard behind Klay while moving Podz to being the primary backup point guard, but it seems likely the organization rates him higher as a trade piece.
Offseason Targets
It’s tough to say exactly where the Warriors’ needs will be once free agency comes around, but it is safe to assume any signings they make will be more on the margins since even if they get below the first apron, the taxpayer midlevel starts at just above $5 million. They have the 52nd pick in the draft and they’ll attempt to repeat their recent success with late picks Gui Santos and Trayce Jackson-Davis. I suspect they’ll target those same demographics - international players and polished college players - again this year.
Draft
Possible collegiate targets include players like Harrison Ingram, Isaiah Crawford, Isaac Jones, Antonio Reeves, Jalen Bridges, Ajay Mitchell, Keshad Johnson, Coleman Hawkins, Pelle Larsson, Jonathan Mogbo, and Tristen Newton. Someone else could fall like TJD did last year as teams try to get players on two-way deals instead of full NBA contracts and the Warriors are well positioned to scoop them up in that scenario.
International targets are harder to nail down and can come out of left field like Santos, but some currently on the radar are Nikola Djurisic, Ariel Hukporti, Malique Lewis, and Mantas Rubstavicius. Pacome Dadiet out of France is a favorite of mine, but he’s gotten some helium recently and seems unlikely to make it to pick 52.
Lottery Luck??
There’s only a 3.4% chance of the Warriors moving into the top four picks and therefore keeping their pick this year instead of sending it to Portland, but I want to be thorough here. If you don’t want to indulge, feel free to move ahead.
It might be a bad thing for the Warriors to move up in the draft. There aren’t any players who seem capable of stepping into a vet-heavy team with playoff expectations and contributing while the team balances the expectations and salary of a top pick. Trading the pick seems fraught as well since other teams might have the same reservations about this class and they need to wait until draft night to make a trade due to the Stephen rule since the Blazers would own the rights to the Warriors’ 2025 pick. Even if the Blazers do have multiple targets high up in this draft, they may want to roll the dice on the Warriors 2025 season not going to plan since the 2025 draft appears to be much stronger than this year’s edition. Someone would probably bite, but the pick doesn’t carry the same weight as a top four pick in other drafts would.
If they do move up and keep the pick, it’s hard to forecast who they would be interested in. The Kentucky and UConn players seem most likely, but perhaps Matas Buzelis, Cody Williams, or another wing appeals to the Warriors’ brain trust.
Free Agency
In free agency the targets will be lower salary players, though any available exceptions will open up the free agent pool a little bit beyond their traditional minimum salary targets. Unless they go full cost-cutting - Thompson leaves, cut CP3 and Looney - they won’t have access to the standard (non-taxpayer) mid-level exception, which could get them a starter level player. For reference, the standard MLE is what the Knicks used to sign Donte DiVincenzo last offseason. Instead, I expect they’ll be hunting for depth all along the position spectrum, needing another ball-handling guard, a wing or forward, and a big.
This is important because their free agent additions have not hit much the last two seasons and any addition talent helps counteract any potential slippage from the core. Hitting on Podziemski and TJD in the draft last year was a huge success for the organization, but creating more depth will be beneficial as the core ages, regardless of any departures from free agency or trades. They might even be in position to use all 15 roster spots!
Guards / Wings
Curry and Podziemski are the only two complete locks to be in the guard room next season. Thompson and Moody could be gone or both could stay. Either way, the Warriors could use another option here, preferably one who can shift on-ball but also take more challenging perimeter assignments when necessary. Curry was not at the same level on defense as previous years, whether due to age or fatigue, and with Klay’s athleticism waning, having an option to take those assignments is important. They occasionally stuck Podziemski on those players, but when alongside Curry, that makes for a small backcourt where neither is a particular tenacious defender.
Which direction they go here could be a signal for how they plan on deploying Podziemski, as going after a ball-handler with limited shooting like Dennis Smith Jr., Markelle Fultz, or Talen Horton-Tucker could mean they see Podziemski playing off the ball more. If they go for more of a classic shooting guard like Malik Beasley, Reggie Bullock, Gary Harris, Garrison Mathews, or Lonnie Walker, then maybe Podz will take more of the on-ball work. The two players with the most potential to toggle between those roles himself are likely De’Anthony Melton and Delon Wright, though Melton will likely command more than most of the other players listed.
Some more off the wall targets that I like here are two two-way restricted free agents and a former NBA player who has been playing in Europe. Vit Krejci was not promoted for some reason by the Atlanta Hawks despite starting 14 games late in the year for them. He’s 6’8”, has some ball-handling skills and looks like a good shooter. Johnny Juzang has been on two-way contracts with the Jazz for the last two years and also looks like a promising shooter with some size at 6’6”. He also torched the Warriors for 27 points and you never know, maybe that left an impression on them.
Lastly is Dzanan Musa, a former first round pick who struggled with the Nets as a 19 and 20 year old before they cut him and he went back to Europe. He’s played quite well for Real Madrid the past two seasons, shooting it well from behind the arc and the free throw line and having a good assist to turnover ratio. How his athleticism translates back to the NBA is the biggest question since his rebounding, steal, and block rates haven’t been particularly strong recently. He’s listed at 6’9” and 217 lbs and could be stuck between not being quick enough to guard NBA guards or wings and not strong enough to guard forwards. But his contract is reportedly up with Real Madrid and NBA teams should at least be gauging his interest in a return.
Forwards
The Warriors may not target true forwards, depending on if they move Wiggins and even how they feel about Gui Santos’ progress. But they could target players like Haywood Highsmith, Naji Marshall, Cedi Osman, or Taurean Prince. Prince is the most notable of that group and the best shooter, but also likely the worst defensively. Highsmith and Marshall are low usage defensive specialists, though Highsmith is more of a shooter and Marshall fits more as a slasher. Osman balances the three and D a bit more than the others.
Nic Batum is a player I’ve long enjoyed watching and think he’d be a good fit for the Warriors if he leaves Philly, and depending on health, Robert Covington is another long time favorite who could be an option. Gordon Hayward is another veteran option who may be available for the minimum and could fill an Otto Porter Jr. type role for the Warriors, but he may want a bigger role than they can offer. Performance and availability are also questions since he hasn’t posted a positive BPM since 2020-21 and played more than 52 games since 2018-19, so it’s a bet that the talent is still there and a reduced role could keep him healthier.
Kenyon Martin Jr. and Bol Bol are two younger fliers, though it wouldn’t surprise me if the league closed the book on Bol soon. Martin Jr. fits more in the event the Warriors move off of Gary Payton II.
Bigs
If the Warriors keep Looney, then I don’t expect them to sign any true bigs. If they do let him go, then the two bigs at the top of my targets would be Goga Bitadze and Xavier Tillman, Sr. Both players have starting experience despite being young, have some passing ability, and have solid defensive track records. Bitadze is bigger and a true center whereas XTS brings more versatility to the defensive side of the ball.
They could also bring Dario Saric back - he’s a solid but limited player, and keeping continuity could be good if others leave. If they don’t, then they would lack a stretch big, though they’ve succeeded in the past without one. Mo Bamba is the only big on the market with that sort of skill set, but Saric is miles better than him as a passer. Luke Kornet, Chimezie Metu, and Thomas Bryant are also options, but like Bamba they’re probably best as situational 4th bigs and not regular rotation players.
Two-Way Players / Undrafted Free Agents
Sitting somewhere between the draft and free agency are two-way players and undrafted free agents. The Warriors, in my opinion, have not done as well in this area as other teams. This is certainly due in parts to their salary cap status for much of the last decade and their consistent status as a veteran team with many entrenched players. And of course, hitting on Gui Santos and TJD late in the past two drafts also shades into this area of roster development and should be considered.
But where is the Keon Ellis? The Naji Marshall? The Royce O’Neale? The Dorian Finney-Smith? The Austin Reaves? Okay, asking for Reaves is a little much, and DFS and O’Neale have both been traded for first round picks. But these are the types of scout and develop stories that the Warriors need. Lester Quiñones developed enough to earn an NBA contract from the team and Ty Jerome used his time as a two-way player to earn a two year, guaranteed contract from the Cavs. But the last player picked from the proverbial scrap heap to make an impact for the Warriors in multiple seasons was Damion Lee.
I liked their pickup of Usman Garuba last year for a two-way slot despite it not really working out, but using one on Jerome Robinson only showed the team’s loyalty to Robinson for spending the last two seasons in Santa Cruz. I’m sure he’s a good dude to have around, but it seems clear that he isn’t an NBA player. I’m not sure who will be out there to snag as an undrafted free agent on a full NBA or two-way deal, but I’m hoping they’re more promising than some of the recent ones.
Recap
It’s an uncertain time in Warriors World and although it feels like every offseason is a reckoning on the future, this one seems to outpace the others. Two seasons removed from a championship. Klay potentially leaving. Other championship contributors possibly leaving. An ability to get under the luxury tax.
They could also kick the can down the road on many of these decisions if they re-sign Thompson and retain both Wiggins and Kuminga. However, that doesn’t seem likely as the minutes breakdown simply doesn’t make a ton of sense with all of them back. Juggling minutes has already been an issue for Kerr and there isn’t a perfect solution available.
It’s going to be fascinating watching them operate and tracking the moves. How highly do they really value Kuminga? What price do they put on Klay’s contributions over the years? We’ll have to wait to find out, though it promises to be an exciting off-season in the NBA, as it always is.