The Golden State Warriors are off to an interesting start to an interesting season. They have looked terrible for times and awesome during other stretches while having one of the least disrupted seasons thus far in terms of COVID. They are 7-6 now after their win against the Lakers, which puts them in the play-in tournament if the season ended today. However, they are sitting at 23rd in net rating and aren’t looking particularly deep after a couple of injuries.
Let’s start at the top of the roster. Steph is generally doing Steph things, Wiggins is looking solid, and Draymond and Oubre are improving. Curry’s shooting percentages are slightly down from his peak so far, but he silenced the early critics after a few hot shooting nights and more than that, the rest of the team is starting to conform to his identity. Green provides another like minded player on the floor for Curry and their impact and chemistry together have been apparent since he returned after Steph looked poor in the first two games without Draymond. He keeps both the ball and other players moving, which goes hand in hand with Curry’s aesthetic, while providing a vocal, defensive presence the team is otherwise lacking.
The other players are gaining more comfort with this style, which is quite unlike most NBA and even college offenses. It’s free flowing for the most part and Curry’s talent forces his teammates to make snap decisions to screen, cut, or pass the ball in moments that simply don’t happen elsewhere. There have already been instances where Steph frantically motions for a player to set a screen for him to pop to the corner after giving the ball up, but the screen comes too late and nothing happens.
Kelly Oubre in particular has struggled adjusting to this style of play, which is a bigger issue than his early shooting troubles. He’s a fine shooter who will hit more threes and his defensive ability is important to this team, but once he starts a drive, don’t expect a productive pass out. It’s more likely he either throws up a shot regardless of the number of defenders near him or maybe dumps the ball off, and that subpar floor awareness limits his on ball ability and is more glaring in this offense than in years past. All of that being said, I remain optimistic he will contribute positively to this team and be relied upon in the playoffs because of his mix of defense, rebounding, and shooting.
The bigger issue for the team’s regular season hopes is the lack of a quality big man. James Wiseman has looked relatively good for a rookie - did you know he only played 3 games in college?? - and is picking up details as the season progresses. His jumper is much sweeter than expected, though his free throw stroke casts some doubt on the jumper and he has stopped taking them recently. However, he seems to have smaller than expected hands, hindering his ability to rebound and finish in traffic, particularly when forced to do so with only one hand. And for all the improvements, he is still a rookie and learning on the job. It seems Kerr understands this well enough considering he did not go back to him in the last six minutes of the second game against the Clippers after did so at the end of the first game and watched their hopes quickly slip away. But it seems apparent that decision does not always rest with Kerr, which hints at larger organizational disconnect.
The organization, or at least ownership, is clearly dedicated to Wiseman - his superior “fit” lead to him being picked over LaMelo - and will do what’s necessary to keep him starting and playing enough minutes on a team that could be a playoff threat depending on how the season breaks. This is despite already losing Marquese Chriss for the season and Alen Smailagic will be out at least four weeks, too, leaving their big man depth at Wiseman, Green, Looney, Paschall, and Toscano-Anderson. It is necessary for them to cut one of the injured players loose - likely Chriss as Smailagic has two more non-guaranteed years left on his deal and draft debt - and sign another big man such as Omari Spellman or DeWayne Dedmon, though trades or waiting for buyouts are other options.
However, the organization’s priorities seem to lie somewhere besides maximizing this roster and therefore the season. Sign another big man. Play Oubre as the 4, though that can be tough when Wiggins may also need to get minutes as the nominal 4. Keep the pace up. Maybe run more double drags for Steph. Hope Wiggins continues to play well. Thankfully they have been giving Paschall more minutes as the 5 man in the second unit, which suits him well. Close games with Curry, Damion Lee, Wiggins, Oubre, and Draymond. Small things like that are going to help this team succeed in the regular season and be a threat in the postseason, though that will be match-up dependent.
Wiggins is especially important since he may be the key for the team, both this season and moving forward, because of the team’s salary cap situation. Next year the team will have Steph, Klay, Draymond, and Wiggins all under contract at increased amounts from this season. Although Oubre will be coming off of the books, the increases from those players and the rest of the team mean they’ll have a net reduction of only $9M in salary and still be in the luxury tax. They also qualify as a repeat offender of the luxury tax this year and presumably will again next year unless they cut costs significantly.
What does all of this have to do with Wiggins? He’s the youngest and least “core” member of the high salary group and there’s a good chance the Warriors will be adding a top five and top 20 pick in the 2021 draft. In my view, that means something has to give and Wiggins seems the most likely current player to be shipped out. The main variables are how Wiggins plays and where the draft picks fall. If he plays well, then maybe ownership decides to commit to him as the bridge between eras. But even if he plays well and is considered at least a neutral asset with only two years left on his deal, ownership may decide to trade him for other rotation level players who are less burdensome salary cap wise. If he doesn’t and ownership wants to lessen the tax bill, then the Warriors might have to attach the Timberwolves’ 2021 first round pick and / or Wiseman to him. The picks and their protections complicate the situation: the Timberwolves’ pick is protected in slots one through three in the 2021 draft and unprotected in 2022, and their own 2021 first rounder is protected for slots one through 20 from the Thunder. There’s a non-zero chance the Warriors possess neither pick for the 2021 draft if they play well and Minnesota continues to struggle.
Speaking of the draft, the 2021 one is shaping up to be as advertised and very good at the top. However, the Warriors draft record is spotty for the last few years. Their 2019 draft night remains one of their bigger disappointments in my opinion - imagine if they had taken Keldon Johnson or traded the pick for four second rounders instead of taking Jordan Poole? And remember that they only picked Paschall at number 41 after they were forced to trade for the 39th pick in order to pick Smailagic because of their telegraphed crush on him. That love affair is especially disconcerting in light of how he was discovered and news the Warriors project him to become the next Ersan Ilyasova, Steve Novak, or Davis Bertans - all great shooters and excelling at different types of shot making - despite being a career 66% foul shooter and 29% three point shooter, showing a lack of awareness by the organization.
It all combines to make this team interesting in a way they weren’t during their peak years and could shine a light on the organization’s capabilities, goals, and limitations. If the year does not go smoothly, then fan criticism could increase to levels not seen since Lacob was booed during Chris Mullins’ jersey retirement. But if things go right, then they could make a playoff run and get momentum going for a potentially very bright future.
What I’m Reading
- Are Millenials Learning to Outsource their Adulthood? - especially fascinating considering how the pandemic has increased usage of delivery services
- Big Tech’s Loudest Climate Advocate has a Fossil Fuel Problem
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