Baseball Thoughts - Fantasy and MLB Draft

The MLB season is over one third of the way done and the draft is right around the corner. I’m a pretty big follower of prospects in general, both draft and in the minor leagues, so I’m always interested to see how it plays out. Of course, the draft is also big for the A’s considering they aren’t a big spending team. They also have the specter of the failed Kyler Murray pick hanging over this draft.

I don’t expect a lot for this draft from the A’s, considering they will be picking outside of the top ten for the first time in several years (thank goodness) and also traded away what turned out to be pick number 38 in the Emilio Pagan/Jurickson Profar deal (not looking great right now). Those two factors come together to put the A’s towards the bottom in total slot money for the draft, limiting their bargaining power and ability to take risks with tough-to-sign high school players.

I’ll quickly go over some of the players that I am personally interested in and would like for the A’s to go after, regardless of whether or not I think they actually will. The first chunk of players are early favorites from early in the season who played themselves above the A’s pick, while the next group are players who will more likely be around for the A’s.

Group 1:

  • Hunter Bishop, ASU OF: previous favorite when he was coming out of high school, turned tools into production this year and drastically improved plate discipline numbers. Now likely top 10 pick.
  • Shea Langeliers, Baylor C: was seen as a potential top 5 pick before a broken hamate bone delayed his start to the season. Good defensive catcher seems likely to be picked in the teens.
  • Zack Thompson, Kentucky LHP: Concerns over his elbow and command had him in the A’s range at the start of the year, but good performance has pushed him up to the 8-15 range of the draft.

Group 2:

  • Greg Jones, UNC-Wilmington SS: toolsy player has translated those into more production this year and fits A’s recent draft philosophy. Unclear if he sticks at SS or moves to CF where his speed could really play. Has been linked to the A’s.
  • Kyren Paris, CA HS SS: super young for class SS who grew into some tools this spring and is from the Bay Area.
  • Gunnar Henderson, AL HS SS: young for class SS with a lefty bat. Not a guarantee to stick at short, but bat should be enough for 3B. Alabama Class 3A basketball player of the year, too.
  • Matthew Lugo, PR HS SS: young for class (sense a theme?) SS from Puerto Rico with awesome bloodlines as the nephew of Carlos Beltran.
  • Brennan Malone, FL HS RHP: nice combination of velo, off-speed, command, and classic starter’s body at 6’5” 210.
  • Blake Walston, NC HS LHP: popup arm who is young for the class with great reports on his curveball. Also a quarterback for his HS team.
  • Braden Shewmake, Texas A&M 2B: Hit 11 homers as a freshman, but only 11 combined during next two years. Good hit tool.

Michael Toglia, Michael Busch, and Seth Johnson are other names that have actually been linked to the A’s. My preference order for those guys Busch, Toglia, and Johnson. I could see the A’s interest in Johnson, a shortstop turned pitcher, as in the past they have had interest in guys converted to the mound. Maurice Hampton is a four star football recruit for LSU and has the tools you’d expect, but is a bit too raw for me.

Other names that appeal to me later in the draft are TJ Sikkema, Jack Kochanowicz, Noah Murdock, Hudson Head, Dasan Brown, Christian Cairo (son of Miguel Cairo), Jack Kenley, Nick Kahle, Korey Lee, Matt Dyer, Chris Villaman, Chris Mokma, Jason Hodges (nephew of Craig Hodges), Jordan Brown, Michael Dixon, and other young for the class high schoolers.

(Author’s note: Obviously this is being published after the MLB draft actually occurred. It was written beforehand but I wanted to finish both parts of the piece, which caused the delay. I hope to write a piece regarding the A’s draft soon.)


I am in the middle of my first season in an Ottoneu fantasy baseball league after playing ESPN for several years, and the jump in competition and the new format have been fun. The league requires a slightly different way of thinking with the auctions and salary cap, but it has been a good challenge and I hope to solidify some of my strategies moving forward in this post. My position in the standings is relatively strong even though I got off to a poor start, but there’s certainly room for improvement.

My hitters have been good and I have solid depth and flexibility with them, though there are hitting prospects that I’m interested in adding. If Jose Ramirez ever returns to form, then I think I’d have a top two group of hitters. I’m typically able to cover most of the positions every day with a full slate of games, due in part to the flexibility afforded me by players like David Fletcher and Brandon Lowe. Simply getting as many at-bats as possible has turned out to be a solid strategy.

The story on the pitching side is a bit different. Not only did I start from a weaker point for my pitchers (having Severino on the shelf didn’t help here), but it’s been harder for me to calibrate what is good value and how to handle the pitching side of my roster. Not helping matters is that I’ve overbid on a few starter prospects, which has eaten into my budget and more importantly my roster spots. I have Dylan Cease ($5), Jesus Luzardo ($2), Nate Pearson ($3), Zac Gallen ($3), and Jose Suarez ($2). Suarez is in the majors now so I might keep him around, but will try to use at least Cease and Gallen to grease the wheels on some trades.

My goal with any potential trades is finding players who would be good players to have for this season as I make a run at the title, but that I’m comfortable cutting loose over the offseason. Aaron Nola is one guy that I have been locked into a bit for a while, which is helped by the fact that he is underperforming thus far in the season. I’m also hoping that by moving a prospect or two and strengthening my starters that I can accomplish two other goals: strengthen my relievers and add hitting prospects.

If I am able to do this, then I think I will be able to set myself up well for this year and next year. There are some astoundingly strong hitting prospects still available in my league that I would not mind holding onto for a season before they break into the big leagues, though admittedly I need to exercise patience over my prospect hound side. It seems there is an advantage to being an early adopter to some of these players, especially considering they only rise in salary by $1 over the offseason, which is a small price to pay for potentially elite players. In particular there are two or three catchers who are in the high minors and quality targets considering the lack of quality options at the big league level.

The next step is executing this plan, and of course that will be the hard part. It is important to not grow too attached to any single one player and overpay for them, especially if that player is a prospect. I am also planning on building out some tools and models to help me by providing information about active owners, optimal times to start auctions based on cap space and open roster spots, and potentially projections that are focused on fantasy scoring. This will hopefully ease parts of the burden and allow me to focus on other parts of my team.

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