It took me a while to get around to it, but it’s finally here: my 2021 shadow draft for the Oakland A’s. I’ll kick it off by saying that the A’s didn’t have a ton of money to work with this year and still managed to get some talented players into the system. I found some of my old takes on the A’s drafts and, well, for the most part they have not aged well. It’s a good thing the pros are running things!
Along with not being a pro, my other disclaimer is that I did this after the draft was done and all of the bonuses were known. Obviously it’s a fool’s errand to do shadow drafts either this way or at the time of the draft, but having some knowledge of how bonuses and the later rounds play out helps tremendously for someone like me. The downside is it lets me over-optimize the money since I have more or less perfect information. My goal was to maximize the overall talent level taken without leaning too heavily towards any particular demographic or cheaping out too much on any top 10 round picks.
The A’s had a pool of $6,188,900, which translates to a maximum pool of $6,498,345 before needing to give up a pick next year.
1.25 - Carson Williams, SS / RHP. $2.4M bonus
I had Williams as a top 20 player in the class, good for a 45 FV. He’s young, has spent time hitting and pitching, and still won MVP at the WWBA Tournament while being a sure bet to stick at shortstop.
2.60 - Lonnie White, Jr., OF. $1.5M bonus
I don’t think I was much higher than consensus on White - he came in ranked 34 on average - and at this point in the draft that was too much to turn down.
Other: Dylan Smith, RHP
3.97 - Denzel Clarke, OF. $700K bonus
Clarke was the A’s actual 4th round pick, but I take him here in the 3rd. The bloodlines and athleticism are too enticing to pass up…and there are other players I want to take in the 4th.
Other: Micah Ottenbreit, RHP. Bryce Miller, RHP. Ryan Webb, LHP.
4.127 - Caleb Roberts, C / OF. $438K bonus
Unclear if he sticks at catcher, but has solid plate discipline and showed some power and speed this year for the first time. I am a little nervous about not taking any pitchers with my top 4 picks and perhaps that could be adjusted for better balance.
Others: Clarke (again and the A’s actual pick). Tanner Kohlepp, RHP. TJ White, OF.
5.158 - Grant Holman, RHP. $375K bonus
The A’s actual 6th rounder, Holman is a big bodied pitcher who had been playing both ways until this year.
Other: Mason Auer, OF
6.188 - Gavin Conticello, SS. $500K bonus
A favorite of mine, though I didn’t expect him to command this large of a bonus going into the draft. Lefty bat with power who could stay on the dirt. Probably the best place to cut money if I wanted to add elsewhere.
Other: Wyatt Hendrie, C. Tristan Peters, OF. Scott Randall, RHP.
7.218 - Rodney Boone, LHP. $167K bonus
Lefty college performer with reasonable price tag. Some think he was better than teammate Michael McGreevy, a first round pick.
Other: Hunter Parks, LHP. Brett Harris, 3B (A’s actual pick).
8.248 - Patrick Wicklander, LHP. $147.5K bonus
Another lefty college performer with a reasonable price tag. Took a step forward this year after being diagnosed with diabetes and was part of a great Arkansas pitching staff.
Others: Liam Hicks, C. Aaron Brown, RHP.
9.278 - Shane McGuire, C. $100K bonus
Brother of Reese McGuire. Good plate discipline and chance to catch.
Other: Austin Schultz, MIF.
10.308 - Landen Roupp, RHP. $75K bonus
Righty out of UNC-Wilmington. Decent numbers and money saver.
11.318 - Eduardo Rivera, LHP. $125K bonus
Young, jumbo lefty out of Puerto Rico.
12.348 - Ben Ramirez, SS. $100K bonus
Future utilityman with solid skills at the plate, but lacks power.
13.378 - Damiano Palmegiani, 3B / OF. $157.5K bonus
Good hitter with unclear defensive home. Could be a four corners type.
14.408 - Jonny Butler, OF. $125K bonus
Nickname is Jonny Barrels. What else do you need to know?
15.438 - Jacen Roberson, OF. $125K bonus
Toolsy OF with a good chance to stick in center.
16.468 - Jonathan Lavallee, RHP. $75K bonus
Big righty whose K rate spiked this year while keeping walks and hits down.
17.498 - Hector Gaby Nieves, SS. $180K bonus
Young shortstop from Puerto Rico.
18.528 - Alex Pham, RHP. $25K bonus
Righty multi-inning guy from University of San Francisco.
19.558 - Sean Hunley, RHP. $25K bonus
Another righty multi-inning guy, this time from an SEC school and potentially plus command.
20.588 - Hunter Breault, LHP. $35K bonus
A’s actual pick. Lefty with ok performance at a big school.
Others considered for rounds 11-20: Blake Dunn, OF. Dillon Tatum, C. Brennon McNair, SS. Jack Winkler, SS. Caden Vire, LHP. TJ Rumfield, 3B. Cam Butler, OF. Jace Avina, OF. Carlos Lomeli, RHP. Alek Jacob, RHP. Blake Beers, RHP. Jake Miller, RHP.
I’m happy with where my picks ended up, though I wonder if I balanced it out enough for success. I picked only 9 pitchers and have 2 maybe catchers, five or six outfielders, and four players who could stick on the left side of the infield. I could perhaps swap out a hitter for a pitcher, which could be Dylan Smith for Lonnie White or Ryan Webb / Bryce Miller for Caleb Roberts (and bumping Denzel Clarke down from the third round to the fourth). In the end, the bonus amount for this group nets out at $6,494,500, or $3,845 short of the 5% overage threshold.
The actual A’s draft netted one 40+ FV, two 40 FV, and one 35+ FV (FanGraphs grades) which amounts to $8.5M in total value. My shadow draft resulted in two 40+ FV, one 40 FV, and two 35+ FV (FG grades), or $11M in total value. Of course, they likely value those players higher as I do for the players I picked, and I believe my bonuses got closer to the overage mark than the actual numbers did. The last note is that my draft is certainly riskier as I went with players like Lonnie White and Gavin Conticello while the A’s went with lower risk players such as Zack Gelof and CJ Rodriguez. I’m excited to see how this group stacks up in years to come!
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